Haiti – Environment : The hurricane season (2021) will be more active than normal
According to forecasts of the Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project team the next 2021 Atlantic Basin hurricane season, which begins in June, will experience higher than normal tropical cyclonic activity.
Current weak conditions in La Niña could change to neutral ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) by this summer or fall, but the likelihood of a significant El Niño seems unlikely.
University researchers predict for the 2021 season: 17 named storms (average 12.1) 8 hurricanes category 1-2 (average 6.4) and 4 major hurricanes category 3+ (average 2.7) between the months of June and November 2021.
Number of stormy days forecast: 80 days (average 59.4)
Number of predicted hurricane days: 35 (average 34.2)
Number of days of major hurricane expected: 9 (average 6.2)
Probability of category 3-4 or 5 hurricane impact areas :
- All of the American continental coastline 69% (last century average 52%)
- US East Coast including Florida Peninsula 45% (last century average 31%)
- Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville 44% (Last century average 30%)
University researchers put the risk of at least 1 major hurricane in the Caribbean at 58%, compared to the average for recent years at 42%.
It should be noted that for the 2020 season the CSU had forecast a more active than normal season, a forecast which turned out to be correct . The Atlantic hurricane season in 2020 broke records and recorded : a total of 30 storms (forecast 16 storms) and 13 hurricanes (forecast 8), including 6 major ones (forecast 4) https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-30685-haiti-flash-the-hurricane-season-2020-more-active-than-normal.html
Let’s recall also that in 2019 the researchers of the CSU had predicted a season slightly lower than the average of (1981-2010), forecast which turned out to be exact https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-27875-haiti-weather-beginning-of-hurricane-season.html
List of names of named storms and hurricanes for the 2021 season :
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Víctor, Wanda.
Classification of hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson scale
The Saffir-Simpson scale has 5 intensity levels. To classify a hurricane on this scale, the sustained wind speed is recorded for one minute at a height of 10 meters.
Category 1 :
Sustained winds 119 to 153 km/h
Storm surge 1.2 to 1.5 m
Category 1 hurricanes usually do little significant structural damage to buildings; however, they can cause limited damage to mobile or precarious homes, vegetation and road signs. Despite their low intensity, they can generate strong winds and can threaten lives.
Category 2 :
Sustained winds 154 to 177 km/h
Storm surge 1.8 to 2.4 m
Category 2 hurricanes are powerful enough to inflict structural damage on homes (roofs and doors). Significant damage to vegetation and uprooting. Mobile homes can also suffer from significant damage.
Sustained winds 178 to 210 km/h
Storm surge 2.7 to 3.7 m
Hurricanes of category 3 and above are called major hurricanes. They can cause structural damage to small homes and buildings. Homes, such as mobile homes, are usually destroyed and roofs generally torn down.
Category 4 :
Sustained winds 211 to 251 km/h
Storm surge 4 to 5.5 m
Category 4 hurricanes cause considerable damage to roofs and light facades. Irreparable damage can be done to small dwellings. Emergency evacuation from shorelines is required, as well as for single-storey houses within 400 meters of the coast and single-storey dwellings within 3 km.
Category 5 :
Sustained winds of more than 251 km/h
Storm surge over 5.5 m
Category 5 is the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricanes in this category can significantly damage houses and urban buildings, tear off their roofs entirely and even destroy them completely. Heavy floods can seriously damage the first floors of all buildings near the coast and many coastal infrastructure can be destroyed and swept away by swells. Emergency evacuations from residential areas must be carried out if a hurricane of this magnitude threatens the population.
SL / HaitiLibre